How you can win big money in sports games: SMU vs UAB
Have you ever wondered how the Sports Betting “smart money” was smart money? Do you wonder what sports betting smart money no different than the amateurs? Heres an example of my game, I analyzed and how I went around and decide which team had the edge. When you can identify an edge, its easy to make money with sports betting: UAB vs SMU -5 first lets start by emphasizing that neither one of these teams is a powerhouse, or even a top 25 teams. UAB is 3-5 SU this season and has averaged only 19 points per game against teams like Marshall, Troy and Rice to name a few. Miraculously, UAB opened their season against Oklahoma and only lost 24-17 in a game where they were 24 point underdogs. Since that game, UAB only 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven matches and that was when they beat up on Troy (who ever heard of a college named Troy?) 21-3.The the second side, SMU plays at home tonight, and theyve done quite well ATS this season, going 4-3 ATS. SMU is 6-3 ATS in their last nine matches, and also 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games.As with any college game, its always smart to see how well teams do at home. Home area, depending on who is playing can be a very important tactical advantage. My impression going into this game was that SMU had a decided advantage at home, which would make them a decent pick to go up against a bad UAB team.So how did my first impression compared with the actual reality? Has SMU has a real home-field advantage? How about this stat-apart from going 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games, SMU has scored 31, 55, 45 and 40 points in their last four home games. In their last four home games with betting lines, SMU has outscored their opponents 31-13 on average per game, while the point spread in those games has averaged only SMU will benefit from -3 points.In other words, in small and medium-sized enterprises last four home games, not only have they won ATS, but they beat SPREAD on average around 15 points per game.The final piece of the puzzle is UABs record player away. Theyre just 3-7 SU in their last 10 road games and 5-5 ATS. They were actually closed out of Georgia a few weeks back and lost SU to Rice 34-33 in a game where they were favored.The bottom line is that everything points to SMU to, and more importantly, tend to running up score at home against UAB. I look for SMU to win this one 41-28.Although I do not “officially” recommend betting the over / under on this game, I will tell you that I would incline to take over 49 years half if I was forced to take a side. Sometimes in a game like this its not a bad idea to split the amount you would bet on the game in two small bets on a game and an over / under. This way, you risk the same amount, but your risk is spread between two relatively independent results, the game itself and over / under.As you can see from the above analysis, it is important to dig deep down in the statistics to identify any patterns. In this case, statistics show that SMU was a very strong team at home, and that UAB was very weak on the road. As it turned out, SMU won 22-9, with UAB out of end zone all night.
Tags: Betting, Games, sport, Team